President Donald Trump predicted to win in 2020, these forecast models say

SALT LAKE CITY — President Donald Trump has been predicted by three forecast modelers to win the 2020 presidential election, according to Steven Rattner, a Wall Street executive and opinion writer.

Rattner wrote in a commentary piece for The New York Times that there are three forecast models that have already picked Trump to win in 2020 even though he doesn't have a direct competitor yet in the race.

The first model comes from Yale professor Ray Fair, who "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes," according to Rattner.

But Fair's model isn't alone. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, reviewed 12 different models of the upcoming election cycle and Trump wins them all, Axios points out.

Lastly, Donald Luskin, who works for Trend Macrolytics, found Trump wins all models in a specific look at the Electoral College results, according to Rattner.

Context: Each of the models shows that Trump will receive a "tailwind" from being the incumbent since the majority of presidents are selected to serve out a second term. The stable economy could also help Trump in the upcoming election. He would, however, likely lose points based on his character, according to Rattner.

Evan Vucci, AP

President Donald Trump speaks to troops at a Memorial Day event aboard the USS Wasp, Tuesday, May 28, 2019, in Yokosuka, Japan. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Not alone: The bond market may also indicate a Trump victory. David Ranson, director of research at financial analytics firm HCWE & Co. told Forbes that the price of corporate bonds indicate the U.S. economy will grow even more next year, which could be helpful for Trump.

"Trump's economy will reaccelerate in 2020," he said. "2019 will mislead some people into believing that Trump is on the edge."

Yes, but: Other models have suggested the economy won't play as much of a role in 2020 because of America's shifting attitudes, according to CNN.

However: Just be careful with taking these forecasts to heart. There's no official candidate running against Trump yet. And, as we learned in 2016, a lot can happen between now and the 2020 election. But these forecasts are an indication that Trump — despite facing a wealth of potential 2020 Democratic candidates — has a fair shot at winning in 2020.

from Deseret News http://bit.ly/2EEOJQW