Weekly picks: Utes should clobber Buffs, turnovers key in BYU-SDSU faceoff

Utah Utes defensive end Bradlee Anae (6) celebrates with the rest of the defensive line after stopping Arizona on third down during the first half of an NCAA football game at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2019. | Colter Peterson, Deseret News

This week’s season finale games for instate teams should have Utah and USU wins and the Cougars could face trouble in D-minded San Diego State.

Are folks underestimating injuries and defensive prowess in Utah, BYU and Utah State games this weekend?

Probably so with the injuries; no on Utah’s defense.

All the local teams should win, although BYU-SDSU is pretty much a toss-up.

Injuries will play a big part in BYU’s game at San Diego State and USU’s season finale at New Mexico. But nobody’s underestimating Utah’s defensive impact on its Senior Day battle with Colorado.

Utah’s defense is such a force that it will snuff out any upset hopes by Colorado in Rice Eccles Stadium. Even if Colorado has shown a remarkable spark in November, one to be admired, Utah’s defense can turn into an offense at the snap of a finger and put the hammer down.

BYU has deployed freshman Jackson McChesney into the backfield with Lopini Katoa after the season-ending injury to Sione Finau, who found a way to be a star after Ty’Son Williams got injured against Washington at the end of September. But can BYU continue to shuffle in running backs and remain explosive when they face a Rocky Long defense, the best the Cougars have seen since Washington?

Maybe.

And will San Diego State’s starting QB Ryan Agnew play? Long told reporters earlier this week he is 50-50 but on Thanksgiving Day The San Diego Union-Tribune reported freshman Carson Baker would get his first collegiate start against the Cougars. Agnew’s mobility is limited due to a calf injury and he is now third string in case of an emergency. Baker will be taking his first snaps of his career.

As good as SDSU’s defense is (No. 3 rushing defense and No. 6 scoring defense), its offense ranks 112th of 130 in FBS in total offense and 118th in scoring.

“What sticks out about them is how well they do against the run. We have to do well with the run against them to be successful.” — BYU QB Zach Wilson

What does BYU do with that?

Well, if you take just the 5-0 win streak totals, BYU’s offense is averaging just under 509 yards and 40 points a game. That would rank the Cougars 9th and 10th nationally in those categories. It is also a team offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes says is the most injured he’s seen in three decades of college coaching.

What’s really weird is McChesney, who has played only two games, may end up being BYU’s leading rusher for the season if he can gain 85 Saturday. He’s already passed Williams.

“What sticks out about them,” said BYU QB Zach Wilson this week, “Is how well they do against the run. We have to do well with the run against them to be successful.”

But, who is going to do that?

Stay tuned.

If BYU enters this game thinking Long’s defense will be as easy as UMass, Idaho State and Liberty, it will be a long and disappointing night. Those warm fuzzy games are over.

Turnovers will determine the BYU-SDSU outcome.

In the Buffs, Kyle Whittingham faces a team that was a two-touchdown underdog to Chris Petersen and the Huskies, yet won. Washington is Utah’s best win of the season. That win was the first for Colorado over Washington since joining the Pac-12 and first since the 1996 Holiday Bowl.

Morgan Scalley’s defense is anxious to get after QB Steven Montez (223 passing 56 rushing last week) and if this season proves anything, Montez will be coughing up the ball and be sacked like taters in no time.

Utah State may be bowl eligible, but it really needs a win over New Mexico in Albuquerque to assure a resume in the MWC bowl pecking order since there are seven league teams bowl eligible. A loss could place USU with the real possibility of being left out of a bowl invite even with six wins.

The Aggies have been shuffling in players all season due to injuries and this Saturday will be much of the same.

This week’s picks:

UCLA 24, Cal 21

Ohio State 34, Michigan 27

Kentucky 21. Louisville 17

Illinois 21, Northwestern 17

Air Force 33, Wyoming 21

Liberty 24, New Mexico State 21

Minnesota 34, Wisconsin 21

Notre Dame 28, Stanford 17

Utah State 34, New Mexico 28

Navy 34, Houston 28

Utah 34, Colorado 14

Arizona State 34, Arizona 31

Fresno State 24, San Jose State 21

BYU 21, San Diego State 17

Last week 11-3; Overall 148-93 (.614)

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