Action in the Layton vs. Davis boys basketball game in Layton on Friday, Jan. 17, 2020. | Laura Seitz, Deseret News
In volleyball last fall, only one top seed won the state tournament, but 22 of the 24 final four spots went to seeds in the top 6
With less than a month remaining in the high school basketball regular season, bracket time for the state tournament is just around the corner.
With RPI rankings now used to seed state tournaments — not to mention that it’s a realignment year — this year’s playoffs will have a significantly different look and feel than past years.
With two-thirds of the season already in the books for most teams, the current RPI rankings for most teams shouldn’t change too much leading up to the state tournament.
The question is, how accurate are the rankings? Will the No. 1 seed really be the team to beat?
Perhaps the best answer to that question comes from looking at the RPI rankings from the fall sports.
Of the 16 state championships handed out in football, volleyball and girls soccer, five were won by the No. 1 seed heading into the playoffs, while four were won by No. 2 seeds.
The only seed higher than No. 6 to win a state championship was Orem in 5A football, which won as the No. 12 seed. That was a very unique situation given Orem’s talent and it’s poor preseason record facing a tough schedule.
Realistically, football will always be the toughest sport to accurately seed a state tournament using RPI rankings because of the limited sample size. There’s a much higher margin for error with teams only playing nine or 10 regular season games.
Basketball teams play between 21 and 23 regular season games, comparable to the 25 regular season games volleyball teams play.
Therefore, in trying to predict how accurate the RPI basketball rankings will be heading into the state tournament, it’s best to analyze how the volleyball playoffs unfolded.
A closer look reveals that those RPI rankings were pretty accurate in every classification but 4A — the class with the largest geographic distribution from St. George to Logan — but only to a point.
In 6A, 5A, 3A, 2A and 1A volleyball, the final four was comprised of teams all ranked in the top 6 in their respective classification, including all five No. 1 seeds. Only one of those top seeds, however, went on to win the state championship, with Panguitch claiming the 1A title.
The other four champs were No. 3 Pleasant Grove (6A), No. 2 Mountain View (5A), No. 4 Union (3A) and No. 4 Enterprise (2A).
In 4A, the RPI rankings were way off from how the playoffs actually unfolded. The final four consisted of seeds No. 4, 6, 9 and 15, with No. 6 Green Canyon hoisting the championship trophy.
The question is were the RPI seeds in 4A that miscalculated, or was it a product of the upsets that always happen in every state tournament?
Additional data from the upcoming basketball playoffs will definitely help in that analysis, but what volleyball did reveal is that the path to the final four is much, much easier for top 6 seeds. Of the 24 semifinalists in volleyball, 22 were a top 6 seed.
Current RPI top seeds
6A boys: Fremont
5A boys: Maple Mountain
4A boys: Sky View
3A boys: Manti
2A boys: Kanab
1A boys: Valley
6A girls: Skyridge
5A girls: Lehi
4A girls: Cedar City
3A girls: South Sevier
2A girls: North Summit
1A girls: Rich
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