What do the Utah Jazz have left to do to get the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference?

Utah Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson (00) and center Rudy Gobert (27) talk as the Jazz and the Houston Rockets play an NBA basketball game at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City on Saturday, May 8, 2021. | Annie Barker, Deseret News

With less than a week remaining until the NBA’s regular season concludes Sunday evening, standings watch is in full effect as teams jockey for position.

For almost three months, the Utah Jazz were atop the Western Conference standings before the Phoenix Suns caught up, and then they went back-and-forth for a few days. Over the past few days, however, the Jazz have regained control of the top seed and are now two games up on the Suns with just four games to play.

But what needs to happen the rest of the way for Utah to seal the deal for the No. 1 seed? On Sunday night, Los Angeles Lakers beat reporter Mike Trudell laid out the race on Twitter (the Lakers defeated the Suns Sunday), with what needs to happen from the Suns’ perspective to earn the top seed.

The Jazz are very close to finishing the job, although it’s not quite a done deal yet.

If Phoenix loses tonight, their chances at being the No. 2 seed increase considerably.

If Utah goes 4-0 or 3-1, they’re No. 1.
If Utah goes 2-2, PHX has to go 4-0.
If Utah goes 1-3, PHX could go 3-1.
If Utah goes 0-4, PHX could go 2-2.

(Suns have tiebreaker over Jazz)

— Mike Trudell (@LakersReporter) May 10, 2021

According to a Deseret News analysis of 100,000 game simulations for each remaining contest, Utah has a 91.7% chance of getting the top seed as of Monday afternoon (the Jazz and Suns are the only two teams that can mathematically finish No. 1). If the Jazz beat the Golden State Warriors on Monday night, that number jumps up to 97.3%.

After determining what seed Utah will finish, the next natural question is who the Jazz might face in the first round of the playoffs. That answer will be impossible to know at the end of the regular season because of the play-in tournament, but we can look at the odds different teams have of qualifying for that tournament; the seventh to 10th-place teams qualify.

As of Monday afternoon, according to the Deseret News simulation, the Lakers have a 72.4% chance of finishing seventh, the Warriors have a 60.6% chance of finishing eighth, the Memphis Grizzlies have a 59.2% chance of finishing ninth, and the San Antonio Spurs have an 87.5% chance of finishing 10th.

McCade Pearson

The odds each of the top 10 teams in the NBA’s Western Conference have of finishing with each seed, according to the results of 100,000 simulations conducted by the Deseret News on each remaining game.

That would mean the Lakers and Warriors would square off in one play-in game, with the winner earning the 7 seed. The Grizzlies and Spurs would play in another game, with the winner getting a chance to play the loser of the Lakers-Warriors game. The winner of the third game would be the No. 8 seed and the team that would face the No. 1 seed in the first round.

Contributing: McCade Pearson

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